December 11, 2017

"The possible marginal tax rate of more than 100% results from the combination of tax policies designed to provide benefits to businesses and families but then deny them to the richest people."

"As income climbs and those breaks phase out, each dollar of income faces regular tax rates and a hidden marginal rate on top of that, in the form of vanishing tax breaks. That structure, if maintained in a final law, would create some of the disincentives to working and to earning business profit that Republicans have long complained about, while opening lucrative avenues for tax avoidance. As a taxpayer’s income gets much higher and moves out of those phaseout ranges, the marginal tax rates would go down. Consider, for example, a married, self-employed New Jersey lawyer with three children and earnings of about $615,000. Getting $100 more in business income would force the lawyer to pay $105.45 in federal and state taxes, according to calculations by the conservative-leaning Tax Foundation. That is more than double the marginal tax rate that household faces today. If the New Jersey lawyer’s stay-at-home spouse wanted a job, the first $100 of the spouse’s wages would require $107.79 in taxes....."

From "The Taxman Cometh: Senate Bill’s Marginal Rates Could Top 100% for Some/Certain high-income business owners would face backwards incentives; lawmakers work to bridge gap" in The Wall Street Journal (which you can get into without a subscription if start at Drudge, where it's the top story right now).

So the rich are fighting back. The effort to make the tax bill politically palatable with these phaseouts at the high end created what is either a terrible problem or the raw material to frame an argument that the phaseouts are unfair. So the rich have got the Wall Street Journal drumming up sympathy for the group that was getting less than zero sympathy. These people who needed to be deprived of a tax cut now need to be saved from radical unfairness. Or so this article says.

I don't know if this is enough to leverage the GOP in Congress to help the rich (but I've heard that's what the GOP really always wants to do). It needs a lot of political cover. The WSJ paints a vivid picture of unfairness — even for a New Jersey lawyer who makes $615,000, normally one of the least sympathetic characters on the face of the earth.

If this article is wrong, somebody better get on the task of showing why it's wrong. Who's motivated to disprove what this article says? I don't think it it would be the Democrats, who hate the tax bill and want to see the whole thing fail. And it won't be the GOP people who actually want to help the rich and don't like the phaseouts. It might be someone who wants the big tax cut and also wants to make sure the rich don't get it — which could be someone who simply believes that for GOP to prevail in the next 2 elections, it must deliver a tax cut that does not hand the Democrats the argument that the GOP gave a big tax cut to the rich.

66 comments:

David said...

This is the inevitable result of overcomplication.

Methinks a Wisconsin lawyer with the same income would have the same result, by the way.

Luke Lea said...

If you like math here is a way to avoid all of that: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1WIdVnQEWdYgYYly9iKkesWCVhfINvbtwuVq2GMOxMbw/edit?usp=sharing

rhhardin said...

The correct solution is a flat tax on everybody with no exclusions at all.

Any time you phase stuff in and out you change the tax rate on the next dollar in ways that have bad consequences unnoticed by the designers.

Losing welfare benefits at certain levels is the biggest disincentive to work around. The marginal rate on the next dollar is too high there too.

traditionalguy said...

This seems to be the old problem of bracket creep. Just throw in an Alternative Maximum Tax to match the old Alternative Minimum Tax, which will also help the CPAs making 600K to make 1200K and feel better.

Chris said...

That's one way to get democrats to vote for a bill.

Tommy Duncan said...

Who's motivated to disprove what this article says? I don't think it it would be the Democrats, who hate the tax bill and want to see the whole thing fail.

The Democrats pretend to hate the tax bill. They actually love it because it gives them political talking points. In hyper-partisan Washington this is just theater on both sides. A pox on both their houses!

Wilbur said...

Flat tax. The only fair way to tax. And the rich pay more, if that's your concern.

Ann Althouse said...

They should have to simplify to get credit for reform.

Anyway, the flat tax would need some exclusion on the bottom at least to cover the "payroll" tax that everyone is stuck with.

But nobody in Congress is pushing the flat tax, just like nobody in Congress pushed single payer health care when the Democrats had the votes to do something.

The love of simplicity exists in the abstract, but people actually, in practice, go for complexity.

Ann Althouse said...

I like simplicity enough to simplify my life by not wasting my time politicking for simple solutions.

John henry said...

They are NOT the "richest" people.

They're people with higj income.

How can we expect any samr laes on taxes or any other thing to comr from people who don't know the difference between omcpme and wesltj?

John Henry

Ann Althouse said...

I'm going to simplify my life by not answering that question.

John henry said...

They are NOT the "richest" people.

They're people with high income.

How can we expect any sane laws on taxes or any other thing to come from people who don't know the difference between omcpme and wealth?

John Henry

Bill, Republic of Texas said...

It looks like we have an answer to Obama's statement that at some point in time you've earned enough. It's $615,000 for a New Jersey lawyer.

Maybe they should have voted Republican.

rehajm said...

While they have real economic consequences marginal tax rates are really only for wonks. I read this as a gee wiz story where we get to sensationalize a 100% rate rather than an attempt to garner sympathy or influence policy.

Big Mike said...

@John Henry, can I assume you meant to type "income" instead of "omccpme"?

rhhardin said...

Anyway, the flat tax would need some exclusion on the bottom at least to cover the "payroll" tax that everyone is stuck with.

That's the income tax. It's self-excluding. You paid it so don't have to pay it again.

Socially you want everybody to pay the same thing so that voters can't vote to tax the other guy. They can only tax the other guy by taxing themselves as well. That changes the dynamics of envy.

Incidentally taxing the rich is the worst way to go. The rich have extra money so taxing them doesn't affect their standard of living at all. Instead, it reduces their investments, which is where all the extra money goes. So less power equipment for ditch diggers is the result.

rhhardin said...

Capital is extra money.

Ann Althouse said...

“That's the income tax. It's self-excluding. You paid it so don't have to pay it again.”

So you’re having at least one adjustment to gross income. I don’t know why you are saying self-excludibg. Is the flat tax on gross or not?

Michael K said...

Who could be against a law that causes rich lawyers to work less ?

Larry J said...

John said...

They are NOT the "richest" people.

They're people with high income.

How can we expect any sane laws on taxes or any other thing to come from people who don't know the difference between omcpme [sic] and wealth?


That is an important distinction. We tax income, not wealth, except for the estate tax. It isn't for lack of trying on some people's part.

rwnutjob said...

I'm sick of hearing about tax cuts for the rich & corporations.

1. I've never received a pay check from a poor person. When that person buys a 150' yacht, they put hundreds of people to work for a couple of years. Those people spend that money on cars, groceries, etc in the local economy.

2. Corporations employee middle income Americans. Corporations pay dividends that many retirees use to live on. Corporations don't pay tax. The only collect tax for the government from their customers. Hasn't anyone heard of net operating profit after tax (NOPAT?)

rhhardin said...

So you’re having at least one adjustment to gross income. I don’t know why you are saying self-excludibg. Is the flat tax on gross or not?

The exclusion is the tax. It's a flat tax either way you figure it, whether on gross or net, at different rate depending on which you call it. It's a linear problem either way.


Also a flat tax solves the marriage tax. You get the same tax filing separately or jointly.

Lewis Wetzel said...

People who have to work to maintain their lifestyle should not be considered "rich." Highly paid, yes, rich, no.

Michael K said...

We tax income, not wealth, except for the estate tax. It isn't for lack of trying on some people's part.

Mitterand did tax wealth in his first term as president of France and there was a mass exodus of wealthy people.

There were some nice bargains in real estate for a while until he switched course in time to save his career.

Four anesthesiologists I knew bought a chateau as a vacation home. It had acres (hectares) of olive groves and a caretaker's house..

Socialism creates nice bargains in real estate. I'll bet there are some in Venezuela.

rhhardin said...

Wealth tax is a tax on capital. Capital leaves.

Fabi said...

"Socialism creates nice bargains in real estate."

Beautiful!

Lewis Wetzel said...

Why do the Democrats & Repubs both want to tax wages? It is literally taking money from working people and only working people. Geez. What is the justification? We want money & you've got it? A tax on wages can only redistribute from wealthy workers to less wealthy workers.

Michael K said...

When that person buys a 150' yacht, they put hundreds of people to work for a couple of years.

Even Democrats leaned that when they pass the "luxury tax"

The Wiki articl;e does not mention the collapse in the US boat building industry. It went to Europe and remains there,

In November 1991, The United States Congress enacted a luxury tax and was signed by the former President George H.W. Bush. The goal of the tax was to generate additional revenues to reduce the federal budget deficit. This tax was levied on material goods such as watches, expensive furs, boats, yachts, private jet planes, jewelry and expensive cars. Congress enacted a 10 percent luxury surcharge tax on boats over $100,000, cars over $30,000, aircraft over $250,000, and furs and jewelry over $10,000. The federal government estimated that it would raise $9 billion in excess revenues over the following five-year period. However, only two years after its imposition, in August 1993, the Congress decided to eliminate the “luxury tax” since it did not achieve its main objective.

It generated no revenue and thousands of jobs were lost, especially in the Northeast,

Even the NY Times noticed.

The luxury tax on new boats is a cruel hoax played on the public at the expense of those who work in the industry. The United States boat industry, and the 600,000 workers employed directly in manufacturing, were served as the sacrificial lamb to appease those who insisted on soaking the rich during Federal budget negotiations.

The Treasury Department has acknowledged that the 10 percent luxury tax on boats will not produce tax revenues to help solve the budget crisis. The luxury tax revenue will not even cover the income tax revenue lost to unemployed workers and bankrupt manufacturers.


See how smart those Congress people are ?

tim in vermont said...

I actually know a New Jersey lawyer like that, (works in Manhattan) and yes, he is amazingly unsympathetic.

tim in vermont said...

A tax on multi billionaires who make all of their money by putting local businesses under wouldn't go far wrong. Instead, for some reason, liberals are all out to protect them with the "net neutrality" rules, that ensure they people like "Alphabet" don't lose control of the internet infrastructure that they didn't build in the first place. The one thing multi-billionaires need from government is that it can be bought, and they want the people who can be bought in charge of the things they don't actually own.

buwaya said...

The fate of the yacht-makers is a tiny bit of proof that Congress and all who enable it are fundamentally evil.

If they were, each of them, personally guilty of a few murders and rapes, the destruction they would have wrought between them would be vanishingly small compared to what they have done collectively through legislation.

tim in vermont said...

Another tax on the rich is restriction on illegal immigration, as that forces up the wages they need to pay. It is weird that the parties are flipped on this issue, but that's because the Democrats are determined to make a new electorate so they can impose a one-party state. It's a battle of survival for both parties.

rehajm said...

The federal government estimated that it would raise $9 billion in excess revenues over the following five-year period. However, only two years after its imposition, in August 1993, the Congress decided to eliminate the “luxury tax” since it did not achieve its main objective.

An excellent example of the failure of static scoring: assume no change in behavior due to a change in policy.

The fatal flaw of static scoring is people respond to incentives.

I Have Misplaced My Pants said...

This is my opportunity to say personal things about taxes that I cannot under any circumstances say in my regular life, such as:

It irks me that there is a phase out for the child tax credit, which we cannot take due to high salary (not necessarily high wealth, as noted above; husband's lucky ex-wife took and takes care of seeing that our wealth is not commensurate with his income) so we get bupkis. Yeah yeah yeah our choice to have kids we already have lots of money whatever whatever. It's still an irritation that evidently past $110,000 in gross income children magically become free to raise. I'd rather we didn't have child tax credits at all because distortion etc but because I'm childish it annoys me that others get it and I don't because, arbitrary line.

1. I've never received a pay check from a poor person. When that person buys a 150' yacht, they put hundreds of people to work for a couple of years. Those people spend that money on cars, groceries, etc in the local economy.

"Taxing the rich" is so tiresome, because a. people always seem to define 'the rich' as people making just above what they make (have a friend who talks about 'six figure income' like it's Daddy Warbucks level stuff when brother, if you don't live in the holler and you have kids that's barely middle class) and b. sure go ahead and confiscate half my money; I'll let you apologize to all the independent business owners and fundraisers and charities I won't be supporting. But I know, you're "helping!" and "compassionate!"

rhhardin said...

The market restricts all advantages, like illegal immigration and pollution.

It's only profitable if you're the only one doing it. If everybody does it, the advantage goes to the consumer.

Every advantage is competed away.

tim maguire said...

In the US, there are many levels of taxation. Federal deductibility masked the problem of too many local taxes. The senate bill peels that band-aid off the festering wound.

So that lawyer can either work less or stop lobbying for expensive irresponsible profligate government under the assumption that Uncle Sam will bail him out.

rehajm said...

I'm childish it annoys me that others get it and I don't because, arbitrary line.

Me too- we'd hire three more people if we got the pass through rate but alas, we're evil accountants. Meanwhile out private equity client families pay carried interest.

Hagar said...

Just make it simple, and the "fairness" will take care of itself.

LincolnTf said...

Another interesting bit in the WSJ today is an editorial by Wisconsin State Senator Leah Vukmir. The stench from that spate of anti-Scott Walker mass hysteria still lingers.

Bruce Hayden said...

"The Democrats pretend to hate the tax bill. They actually love it because it gives them political talking points. In hyper-partisan Washington this is just theater on both sides. A pox on both their houses!"

Here is the reality - the people getting hit with this are most likely Democrats. They whine about giving tax breaks to the rich, but squeal like stuck pigs when high earners get hit. They whine because they still pretend to represent the working class. They squeal because this is where they are, as well as where much of their campaign money comes from. Yes, hypocrisy, which goes unremarked because the MSM are mostly Dems too.

mockturtle said...

The love of simplicity exists in the abstract, but people actually, in practice, go for complexity.

Simplicity takes a lot more work and a lot more discipline than does complexity.

WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...

Considering the rich pay most of the share of taxes - so what if they get a break?
The ultra rich do not pay enough in taxes - Like Warren Buffet and all the tech giants.

WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...

7:36 - Tim In Vermont.

that.

The left side is where the ultra rich reside, and they do not pay their fair share.

WWIII Joe Biden, Husk-Puppet + America's Putin said...

Leftwing Hillarywood dwellers who extol the virtues of socialism and Socialist Dictator-run corrupt Venezuela should pay higher taxes.

Xmas said...

I believed they picked a lawyer as an example here because lawyers are one class of self-employed, professional services that are exempt from pass-through business tax rates:

USA Today story

Ralph L said...

No New Jersey lawyer makes more than $150,000 per year--on his 1040.

Kevin said...

If you're paying taxes in America today, you're already in the upper half of the income distribution. You are by that definition, rich.

So why do we need tax cuts for rich people? Because a big chunk of those rich people aren't doing very well, and that hurts poor people a lot.

We should stop the class warfare and stress that we're all in this together. And we should stop believing that you can have a country where the poor do well but the rich do not.

That would not only solve the issue, it would bring truth to the discussion which seems to be sorely lacking.

Kevin said...

Simplicity takes a lot more work and a lot more discipline than does complexity.

True dat.

Kevin said...

Another tax on the rich is restriction on illegal immigration, as that forces up the wages they need to pay.

Trump should talk about this more.

MartyH said...

Enact a flat tax. On those elected and appointed to the Federal government. Equal to the highest marginal rate their policies produce. Subject campaign contributions to this level of taxation as well. The problem would get fixed in a hurry.

BTW, marginal rates have been at over 100% for the working poor for a long time. Here's a 1999 article with an effective rate of 109% for someone making $7/hour.

https://www.epionline.org/wp-content/studies/shaviro_02-1999.pdf

I'm hardly a class warrior/soak it to the rich guy, but Congress needs to figure out how to move this problem as far up the income ladder as possible.

Hagar said...

The bureaucracy swamp is resistant to change, but the reality is that if the tax code changes, the "rich" will quickly adjust their financial arrangements to match the new code.

stevew said...

Feature or bug?

-sw

buwaya said...

We have lived in the phaseout zones for decades.

Leland said...

Ever since I supposedly became rich and learned I couldn't right of my children's education; I figured this whole issue of limiting deductions and eventually eliminating them is a moved towards a simplified tax and hopefully a flat tax. I never figured it to be an overnight process. The question. Is,whether we will ever get the full payoff of a truly simplke taxcode?

Leland said...

Back, write off education costs. Alas, I'm not rich either, I just work hard and earn more than others. If I was rich, I wouldn't need to work hard.

JackWayne said...

This is just more of the buyer-seller problem we have. When the government creates different classes of people, then you get inequality under the law. The progressive income tax creates several classes of people so we get more inequality. But it’s all good as it’s approved by lawyers everywhere.

Hyphenated American said...

I wonder how much of this is due to state taxes....
Note that the discussion is about federal and state taxes....
It’s likely that New Jersey can fix its own tax system and eliminate this problem.

Jose_K said...

Reagan tax reform:
Top 20 saw an increase from 29% to 31%
Bottom 20% went from 7.9 % to 4.9%
Middle class went down to the pre Great society level
Source; House report back in the 90´s

Jose_K said...

Socialism creates nice bargains in real estate. I'll bet there are some in Venezuela... not really.. prices are in $ and high

n.n said...

Medical insurance reform without progressive profit sharing and reduced bureaucratic overhead. Government, GSEs, and monopolies/single-means culture hardest hit.

Michael K said...

" I'll bet there are some in Venezuela... not really.. prices are in $ and high"

I'll bey there are some that would take real cash offers in a minute. I wonder if the owners have already emigrated.

Michael K said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Michael K said...

" Government, GSEs, and monopolies/single-means culture hardest hit."

Medical industrial consolidation is still proceeding at a rapid pace.

CVS wants to buy Anthem.

A successful deal could push millions of Aetna's members toward CVS's retail pharmacies, walk-in Minute Clinics, and services such as home visits for infusion drugs at a time when retail pharmacy companies are facing stiff competition.

It would also give Aetna the ability to move deeper into the lives of the 44.7 million people it serves and manage their health more efficiently. For example, the insurer might be able to get better insight into whether patients are taking their drugs by gaining access to data from CVS clinics and retail counters.

The Wall Street Journal reported Thursday that CVS Health had made a proposal to buy the health insurer for as much as $66 billion, which could make the deal the biggest merger of 2017.

"This is part of the strange world of the health insurance and PBM industry," Fein said. "Many companies are frenemies."


I doubt if even repeal of Obamacare could undo the damage. It's too late.

If you like the DMV, you will love the new healthcare,

So glad I'm retired.


n.n said...

I doubt if even repeal of Obamacare could undo the damage. It's too late.

So, if capitalism or organic/democratic reform cannot be enacted, perhaps the single-whatever is inevitable, and attention should be focused toward its proper evolution. Capitalism is more dynamic, more prudent, and should enable realization of an optimal solution, but it does seem less and less viable with marginalization of the general population and progressive consolidation of capital and control.

Unknown said...

Value added/Sales Tax. Rich people buy more, pay more. IRS gets reduced to accountants. You can still be political by reducing taxes on specific goods to try to influence behavior (and I suppose you could make 'the rich' pay higher percentage by charging more sales tax on luxury items), but at least it won't be taking money directly from some people to give to some-other people.

Steven said...

My response to the story is, "So what?"

The effective federal rate in the example never exceeds 100%. It's that the state rate, added to the effective federal rate, exceeds 100%. There's no national issue involved; this over-100% thing never happens (for example) to someone in the states of Washington, Texas, New Hampshire, or Florida. This is only a problem as long as a state chooses a) to have a high state income tax rate and b) not allow a state income tax deduction for federal taxes.

So why should the US Congress care? States can adjust their own policies or screw their own citizens as they please, and those citizens in response can choose to remain in or leave those states as they please.